Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
